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Proccedings of International Conference on Forest Impact on Hydrological Processes and Soil Erosion, 5-8. Oct. 2005 , Yundola, Bulgaria
Rainfall Regime Regions in Turkey (A Statistical Climate Study)
Dr. Cercis İkiel
Sakarya University, Art and Science Faculty, Department of Geography Sakarya/Turkey
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Abstract: This study contains statistical evaluation, determination and presentation for the rainfall regime regions in Turkey. Turkey is located into the Mediterranean Macroclimate Region, but the geographical factors create some changes in climatic conditions. The rainfall, which is an important climatic element, shows different kinds of features from one location to another due to the geographical position of the country. One of these differences is rainfall regime which means monthly distribution of rainfall during a year. Turkey’s rainfall regime has been explained according to the monthly rainfall distribution as percent (%) and monthly rainfall (cm) in the various studies. In this study, monthly rainfall, which covers 50 years observation period (1941-1991) from 108 meteorological stations, has been analysed using a different kind of method called standard normal distribution and the results obtained are classified to determine the rainfall regime regions by using the graphics and the tables. As a result, tree main types of rainfall regime regions and twelve sub-rainfall regime regions are determined.
Key Words: Rainfall Regime, Climate, Turkey
Introduction Climate, one of the main important elements of the natural environment, has a determining role in natural and human life. Connecting to this, precipitation, one of the climate element, has an important effect on monthly distribution for annual rainfall. Distribution of the rainfall in months within a year is called rainfall regime. General atmospheric conditions control the rainfall regime in earth. But, geographical conditions have an effect on this position and diversified them. “Differences in the rainfall regime is happened according to general atmospheric conditions in Turkey too. That is why, it is seen drought in summer and rainy springs and winter. However, modification which created by geographical conditions is caused to happened regional and local differences in this position” [1] In the previous studies (Akyol 1944, Çölaşan 1960, Erinç 1984, Akman 1990, Temuçin 1990, Koçman 1993) rainfall regime types are determined according to the monthly rainfall, the percentage of monthly rainfall within the annual rainfall and seasonal rainfall. However, in this study, it is tried to determine the rainfall regime types according to the standard normal distribution, which, nowadays, is being used frequently in climatic studies.
Method and Data In this study, for utilizing the data, 108 meteorological stations are determined as a spatial distribution and have done a long term period observation. But, it has been realised during this study that their starting date of the observation differ a bit. For the best comparison and grouping in this study it is required that all the stations must have same observation period and after this capsulated 1941-1990 fifty years period is sufficient. For completing spatial distribution, three stations are included in examined group which have short observation period (1951-1990).
* Mean monthly rainfall from monthly rainfall (mm) belonging to same observation period has been calculated * Mean monthly rainfall show great differences among the stations. This makes visual (graphic) and numerical comparison and grouping difficult. That is why mean monthly rainfall are transformed to the standard normal distribution. Standard normal distribution is used frequently for climatologist examining the meteorological data which show a feature of time series. * While doing this operation, Z score is obtained using for mean monthly rainfall and standard deviation belonging to each of the stations. Z scores evaluated lie between +2.00 and -2.00 except some stations. An example is given below:
* Precipitation graphics are drawn using Z scores. A trend curve (polinomial) has been added to these graphics for better vision and ease in grouping processes.
* Similar stations are grouped benefiting from Z scores and graphics, and dispersed on a map. Therefore, rainfall regime regions are determined.
* In addition to this, correlation values (R) are calculated between Antalya and Muğla Meteorology stations representing the Mediterranean rainfall regime and the others, so they are the fixing stations which have great differences from others.
Conclusion
* Correlation values of examined meteorology stations show the similarities to the Mediterranean Rainfall regime: 1.00-90.0 in 39 stations, 90.0-80.0 in 14 stations, 80.0-70.0 in 14 stations, 70.0-60.0 in 6 stations, 60.0-50.0 in 10 stations, 50.0-0.0 in 18 stations, in 7 stations the rate below the zero (0). According to this, the Mediterranean rainfall regime and similar conditions are seen in the most of the region in Turkey. * According to the statistical analyses and rainfall graphics (Figure 1) it is seen that there are three main rainfall regimes (Table 1) and the regions that they have effects on them (Figure 2).
These main rainfall regime and sub-regime types are as follows:
A. The Mediterranean Rainfall Regime: In general, it is seen rainy months during the winter and spring seasons, arid summer months. This regime starts to change as going away from the Marmara and Aegean shores. This regime comprises six sub-type with respect to the rainfall and Z scores according to the graphics.
Type A1: This is seen in the regions of Mediterrenean and Agean Cost areas and the South Cost of Marmara Sea. Monthly Z-values for November – March period are positive whereas these numbers are negative for the April to October period. The positive maximum values are seen in December and January. The negative minimum values, on the other hand, are observed in July and August.
Type A2: This type of regime is observed in East Mediterrenean Costs and around İskenderun and Dörtyol. This type differs from the type one in that Z-scores are positive in April and October and the negative scores are observed less, about 2 months.
Type A3: This is observed in the back side of the Mediterenean Costs, especially in the region of South East and East Anatolia. Pozitive scores is seen more (for 6 months),covering November to April.
Type A4: This type is generally observed in the inner part of the Anatolian land. Negative period is two months less than the type A1 and cover 5 months and April and May have positive scores.
Type A.5: This is observed in the central and the East part of Anatolia. Positive scores are found in October to May period and the period for the negative scores are less, being 4 months.
Type A.6: This type of regime is seen in the central part of Anatolia. 7-months period, November/December to June, show positive Z-values. Negative values for Z are observed in July, which is 2 months late than type A1. This shows the continentality effect.
B. Black Sea Rainfall Regime: All seasons are known to be rainy. Fall and Winter seasons have maximum values for rainfall. Rainfall graphics are classified to 3 sub categories as follows:
Type B1: In this category, Z-scores are well beyond the average value for September to January period, whereas it is under the average during February to August. The months April and May differ much in the negative sense than the average, whereas October has more positive deviation than the average.
Type B.2: During September to February period, Z-scores are above the average value. March to August months, on the other hand, lie under the average. The maximum positive deviation is seen in Ocober and December, whereas the minimum deviation from the average is observed in May and June.
Type B.3: During October to March Z-scores are above the average. April to September, on the other hand, lie under the average. The maximum positive deviation is seen in November and December, whereas the minimum deviations from the average is observed in July and August. This situation shows that the Mediterrenean climatic conditions are being dominant.
C. Continental Rainfall Regime: Spring and Summer seasons are rainy and winter is less rainy in this regime. From this point of view it is different than Mediterrenean Rainfall regime. From the Z-scores we have 3 categories as well for this regime. This regime is seen especially in the high plateu and mountains and basin in between.
Type C.1: During April to August Z-scores are above the average. September to March, on the other hand, lie under the average. The maximum negative deviation is seen in December and January, whereas the maximum positive deviations from the average is observed in May and June.
Type C.2: During April to June Z-scores are above the average. July to March, on the other hand, lie under the average. The maximum negative deviation is seen in August and September, whereas the maximum positive deviations from the average is observed in June and July.
Type C.3: Z-scores are above the average during the period of March-June and October-November. With this property it differs than the two types. Z-sores, on the other hand, are below the average during July-March. The maximum negative deviation is seen in July and August, whereas the maximum positive deviations from the average is observed in April and May.
References: Akman, Y.1990, İklim ve Biyoiklim, Palme Yayın Dağıtım, Ankara Akyol, İ.H.1944, Türkiye’de Basınç, Rüzgarlar ve Yağış Rejimi, Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, No:2, pp: 5-6, Turkey Çölaşan, Ü.E.1960, Türkiye İklimi, Ankara Erinç, E. 1984. Klimatoloji ve Metodları, İst. Ünv. Yay No: 3278, pp:334, İstanbul Koçman, A.1993, Türkiye İklimi, Ege Ünv. Ed. Fak. Yay. No:72, İzmir Temuçin, E.1990, Aylık Değişme Oranlarına Göre Türkiye’de Yağış Rejimi Tipleri, Ege Coğrafya Derg. No:5, pp:160-181, İzmir Çakıcı, M. 1991, Temel İstatistik, Emek Matbaacılık, İzmir.
Table 1: Main rainfall regime and sub-regime types
[1] Erinç, E. 1984. Klimatoloji ve Metodları, İst. Ünv. Yay No: 3278, pp:334, İstanbul Figure1: Main rainfall regime and sub-regime types (Turkey)
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